Predicting future GB heat pump electricity demand

To meet net zero carbon targets by 2050s, countries with cold winters, such as Great Britain (GB), will turn to low domestic heating systems electric heat pumps. In this paper, a statistical model is developed using measured performance data from over 550 pumps installed in GB homes 2012. The used predict the additional load on electricity generation and distribution infrastructure for various current future (2050) climates, dwelling energy efficiencies pump deployment scenarios. For year 2020s, 100% uptake of existing stock gave peak demand 78 GW an annual 189 TWh. When added other, demand, represents increase excess around 60%. Making reasonable assumptions about pumps’ efficiency use, climate fabric efficiency, assuming 80% no shifting, 2050s halved 37 GW. By shifting water space 2020s reduced 15%. work provides more robust estimate demands than any previously available. predicted ramp rates, total demands, are lower previous analysts.